MILAN – Operators’ belief that the Fed can reduce the cost of money is fading and uncertainty reigns in markets where today there are no relevant indicators other than European inflation. Finally, Kansas City Fed Governor President Jeffrey R. Schmid called for patience in cutting rates as long as inflation remains above the 2% target and the job market remains strong. The placement of the new BTP Valore continues, with strong demand also on the second day. Mention for Bitcoin, which records 57,000 for the first time since the end of 2021: The growth of the queen of digital currencies reaches a third this year, driven by the turning point marked by the SEC’s approval of ETFs on Bitcoin They have over 5 .6 billion US dollars raised from investors.
Europe has moved little
European stock markets continue to move slowly without finding any ideas for a particular direction. Milan rises by 0.1%, Paris and Amsterdam are on par, Frankfurt grows by 0.4% after slightly improved consumer confidence data, London (-0.13%) and Madrid (-0.6%) fall further behind.
EU stock markets rise cautiously in the middle of the session
At the end of the morning, European stock markets were positive after an uncertain start, with the exception of Madrid, which lost 0.66%. Frankfurt performed very well, gaining 0.43% following the release of German consumer confidence data, while Paris and London were just above parity. Milan rises 0.12%
Bots, 5 billion, auctioned
The Ministry of Finance placed annual BOTs worth 5 billion euros in two separate auctions with a remaining maturity of 6 and 7 months, respectively. The first tranche of 2.5 billion concerns the third tranche of government bonds, which expire on September 13, 2024. The return achieved is 3.769%. The second auction, also for 2.5 billion euros, is the third tranche of the bots, which expires on October 14, 2024. The rate is 3.750%.
Campari, growing sales. The dividend increases
Campari closed 2023 with net sales of 2,918.6 million, a total change of +8.2%. Organic growth was +10.5% over the year thanks to the continued momentum of the brands, particularly aperitifs, tequila and premium bourbon. Adjusted net profit of 390.4 million increased by +0.7%, while net profit of 330.5 million decreased by 0.7%. The proposed dividend for the financial year is 0.065 euros per share, which corresponds to an increase of 8.3% compared to the previous year.
Dbrs confirms Italy’s rating, stable outlook
The Dbrs Morningstar agency confirms the BBB rating (high) for Italy with a stable trend. This is reported in the “Global 2024 Sovereign Credit Ratings Outlook”, in which Dbrs states that “the risks to credit ratings are balanced” and that “the support impetus comes from the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan in the coming years”. “will likely mitigate the slowdown in the economy, which is mainly related to monetary tightening.”
Positive conclusion for Shanghai and Shenzhen
The session ended with Asian bourses on the continent rising, with the Shanghai Composite gaining 1.29% to 3,015.48 points and the Shenzhen Component gaining 2.24% to 9,269.57 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also rose 0.94% to 16,790.8 points. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% to 5,069.53 points on Monday after closing at historic highs last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 39,069.23 points and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1% to 15,976.25 points.
Slight increase in spread
Slight increase in the spread between Italian and German government bonds, which starts at 147 points and means +0.25%. The yield for 10-year BTPs is +3.87%, that for 10-year federal bonds is +2.41%.
German consumer confidence is rising, France is falling
Mixed signals from the confidence indicators. GfK consumer ratings for Germany recovered from their 11-month low in February (-29.6) to -29 points ahead of March 2024, in line with market forecasts. According to the Gfk Group, income expectations have reached their highest level in the last two years (-4.8 compared to -20 in February), while the propensity to buy (-15 compared to -14.8) and the economic outlook (-6.4 compared to -20 in February) reached the highest level in the last two years -6.6) remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the propensity to save rose to its highest level since June 2008 (17.4 versus 14). “Recently, the prospects for the German economy have become increasingly pessimistic,” explained Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at NIM, for whom “with rising prices and weaker economic forecasts, consumer activity is not expected to recover quickly this year.” However, in France, French household confidence began to deteriorate again in February after several months of improvement, falling two points over the month to 89, well below its historical average of 100. According to data from national statistics institute Insee, in the second month the share of Families who “believe prices will rise in the next 12 months” have seen a sharp increase this year (+7 points), while the proportion of families who believe “it is appropriate to make larger purchases” , declined sharply (-5 points).
The EU made little move at the beginning
Uneventful start for the European stock markets. Paris is down 0.04%, with the Cac 40 at 7,926 points. Frankfurt is at +0.05%, the Dax is at 17,431 points. London also opened little changed with the Ftse 100 at +0.06% and 7,689 points.
Departure on the climb to Piazza Affari
An upward start for Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib marks +0.29% at 32,561 points. The best stocks include Stmicroelectronics +1.45%, Ferrari +1.07%, Erg +1.04%, Prysmian +0.84%. On the other hand, Campari fell -0.92%, Banca Mediolanum -0.72%, Amplifon -0.72%, Diasorin -0.67%.
Wall Street, weak closing price yesterday
There was a slightly bearish session on Wall Street yesterday, following Friday’s record close for the Dow Jones and S&P 500. Last week was very positive for all three major indices, which recorded their sixth positive week out of the last seven. This week the focus is on the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, scheduled for Thursday. Analysts expect the index to show a monthly increase in inflation – 0.3% in January after 0.2% in December, with the “core” reading expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.2% in December will rise – a reminder of the long and difficult road to getting inflation back up to the Fed’s annual target of 2%; The annual value is expected to decline slightly from 2.6% to 2.4%, with the “core” value slowing from 2.9% to 2.8%.
Prysmian, 1.9 billion contract for the Scotland-England cable
Prysmian has secured the contract for the contract, worth around €1.9 billion, awarded by Eastern Green Link 2 Limited, a joint venture between Sen Transmission and National Grid Electricity Transmission plc, the owners of the UK’s electricity transmission systems. Under the contract, Prysmian will supply a key high voltage direct current (HVDC) cable system for the development of the Eastern Green Link 2 (EGL2) network, which will connect Scotland and England. This was announced in a company announcement.
Asian and Chinese stock markets are doing well. Tokio retouches the record
Positive Asian markets: In Tokyo, the Nikkei index closed with just +0.01% at 39,239 points, but this represents a partial advantage in renewing its historical record. The Japanese Stock Exchange’s Topix index closed the second weekly session with a gain of 0.18% at 2,678 points. As for the Chinese stock markets, we are witnessing a rebound in Shanghai (+0.88%) and await the February readings of the Chinese PMIs, which will be used to assess the signs of recovery evident from the consumption data for the week Lunar New Year is also confirmed by Dragon companies. The slowdown in tech stocks, on the other hand, is slowing Hong Kong, which is moving towards parity (+0.06%), while the Kospi index in Seoul falls to 0.83%, despite the South Korean government recently announcing measures to support the capital markets Country.
The price of oil is rising
Oil prices are rising in Asian markets. WTI crude oil futures rose to $77.75 per barrel (+0.22%), while Brent futures rose 0.18% to $81.88. Crude oil prices are rising due to the risk of disruption to maritime transport due to the crisis in the Red Sea: Houthi rebels in Yemen almost hit a US oil tanker at the weekend. In response, the United States and the United Kingdom bombed several Houthi rebel positions in Yemen on Saturday, the fourth joint operation by the two nations against the Iran-backed group. The situation on the Middle East front remains tense as the Israeli army launches airstrikes near the Lebanese town of Baalbek, the worst attack in Lebanon since hostilities broke out between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has announced that a ceasefire in Gaza could begin with Ramadan.
Uncertain future of the EU
A negative start to the session is forecast for the main European stock markets, with investors turning their attention to the preliminary Eurozone inflation figures on Friday, which will be anticipated by price values in the main European countries on Thursday. At this point, however, the market believes the prospect of a Fed rate cut in May or June is looking less likely given increasingly clear signs of inflation that shows no signs of abating. The Dax future falls by 0.15%, that of the Ftse 100 by 0.18% and for the Euro Stoxx 50 we are at -0.21%.
