MILAN – Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not only pushed up the price of gold bullion, but also caused the price of oil to rise towards October highs of $91 a barrel and investors to increase their prices in recent times Days have already lowered expectations, further concerns are caused by the Fed’s interest rate cut. Today comes important data on American employment in this sense: any unexpected strength in the American economy would give impetus to the hawkish words of the President of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, who said yesterday that there may be no cuts at all this year. With Wall Street closing sharply in the red yesterday (-1.35% for the Dow), Asian stock markets were weak this morning. Net losses for Tokyo (-2%) and a clear downward trend also in Europe.
Zegna profit in 2023 increases to 136 million, coupon 0.12 euros
The Ermenegildo Zegna Group closes 2023 with a net profit of 135.7 million euros, an increase of 107.8% compared to the 2022 financial year, with a profit margin of 7.1% (4.4% in the 2022 financial year) corresponds. The proposed dividend is 0.12 euros per ordinary share (+20% compared to the 2022 financial year). Sales amounted to 1,904.5 million euros, an increase of 27.6% compared to the 2022 financial year (+19.3% organic growth). Adjusted EBIT was 220.2 million euros with an adjusted EBIT margin of 11.6% (10.6% in fiscal year 2022).
Milan is falling (-1.7%), Europe is waiting for work in the USA
Piazza Affari (-1.7%) and the other European stock exchanges (Frankfurt -1.46%, Paris -1.33%, London -0.88%) are in a sharp decline while futures are on the wall Street recovers slightly in anticipation of US labor market data. Nonfarm payrolls and job creation numbers, if negative, could reaffirm expectations of monetary easing, which were called into question yesterday by statements from some Fed bankers, including Neel Kashkari, who raised the possibility of one Interest rate cuts this year cannot be ruled out. The tensions between Israel and Iran, which drove the price of crude oil to over $ 90 a barrel on Thursday, continue to worry investors, but not oil stocks such as Eni (+1.2%), the only gainer on the main price list Milan, also thanks to the Buy back 1.1 billion.
Confcommercio, social hardship at its lowest level since August 2009
In February 2024, the social hardship index (Misery Index) calculated by Confcommercio was 12.8 (-0.3 points compared to January), the lowest level since August 2009. The association emphasizes that the slowdown is due to the progressive decline of goods inflation and services with high purchase frequency (2.8% compared to 3.5% in the previous month). Extended unemployment recorded a slight increase (8.5% compared to 8.3% in the previous month). The slight increase in unemployment in a situation of increasing employment is a possible sign of greater participation of the discouraged in the labor market.
EU price lists start lower when oil prices are high
After reaching their highs in recent weeks, European stock markets are losing ground as Wall Street slumps on Thursday. The sales hit all sectors except energy, helped by the fact that tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian front pushed oil prices to $91 a barrel, a level not seen since October last year had seen more. Frankfurt posted a loss of 1.13% after factory orders fell more than expected year-on-year in February (-10.6%) and rose less than expected in the previous month (+0.2%). Paris is down 1.2%, London is down 1.01%. In Milan (-1.33%), only Eni is bucking the trend (+0.99%).
Tim, 1.5 billion bridge loan
Tim has signed a €1.5 billion bridge financing agreement with a term of up to 18 months. The company announced this in a statement. The transaction aims to meet refinancing needs until the closing date of the sale of NetCo and offers conditions in line with market standards. The bookrunnes of the financing are Bnp Paribas, Credit Agricole Cib, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Santander and Unicredit, the latter also acting as documentation bank and facility agent.
The spread starts higher at 140 points
The BTP Bund spread rose to 140.5 basis points at the start of the session from 137.9 basis points on Thursday. The Italian 10-year yield rose slightly to 3.74% (from 3.73%).
Tokyo closes sharply, losing almost 2%
The Tokyo stock market closed sharply lower, with semiconductor stocks falling following declines on Wall Street. Meanwhile, investors await key US employment data. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 1.96% to 38,992.08 points, while the broader Topix index lost 1.08% to 2,702.62.
India is keeping interest rates stable but opening up to the future
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of India’s central bank has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%: a decision – that of the Reserve Bank of India – that was expected by analysts, but which resulted in a slight reduction in the ” hawkish tendencies. Tones and what is leading analysts to predict that the RBI will start cutting interest rates in the third quarter.
Yellen: “China’s subsidies are a risk to the global economy”
China’s direct and indirect public support “currently results in a production capacity that significantly exceeds domestic demand and also exceeds the carrying capacity of the global market,” said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at a meeting with the American business community in Guangzhou. “I understand that these actions may be driven by domestic development goals, but excess capacity may result in large volumes of exports at low prices,” Yellen added, according to a Treasury Department memo. All of this poses “a risk to global economic resilience”.
Asia weak after losses on Wall Street
Major Asian stock markets are falling amid escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns that Israel’s war against Hamas could escalate into a regional conflict with Iran. The threat has heightened fears that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as previously expected, and attention now turns to the release of key U.S. jobs data later in the day. The selloff followed a general slump on Wall Street that observers said could also be due in part to profit-taking after a months-long rally that has seen several indexes hit multiple records this year.
Optimism was tested after the deadly attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, for which Tehran blamed Israel and threatened retaliation. In Tokyo, the benchmark Nikkei index fell more than 2%, although the economic super index rose above expectations in February. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 0.44% and Seoul fell around 1%, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange remained closed for a holiday.
Euro weak above 1.08 dollars
The euro opened weakly above $1.08, recovering from seven-week lows hit earlier in the week, while the dollar weakened. Operators are closely monitoring monetary policy developments after FEC Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that recent inflation data has not significantly changed the overall picture and that it will likely be appropriate to begin cutting interest rates at some point in the year. All eyes are on the monthly US jobs report today. The ECB also reiterated that the hypothesis of a rate cut was strengthened as inflation was expected to fall further in the coming months. The single currency is changing hands at 1.0826 dollars (-0.10%) and 163.64 yen (-0.24%). Dollar/Yen at 151.15 (-0.13%).
Wall Street, futures rise cautiously, wait for US jobs
On Wall Street, futures are rising cautiously after indices closed lower yesterday. Investors are assessing aggressive comments from some Federal Reserve officials and awaiting the U.S. employment report due later today, which will highlight unemployment, which has continued to rise in the United States recently despite the rise in the number of the employees. Dow Jones futures were up 0.09%, Nasdaq futures were up 0.25% and S&P 500 futures were up 0.18%.
