MILAN – Mixed indices in the West and a positive session in Asia, with investors focused on the Economic Party Congress in China after growth targets were set at a 5% benchmark. China has made progress in its economic restructuring process and will “soon further optimize the changes,” he said Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Beijing’s top economic planning authority. Above all, we wait for the Fed President’s words to Congress. Jerome Powell: The aim is to create more clarity about the tariffs. Bitcoin Chapter: After reaching $69,200, an all-time high, the cryptocurrency crashed to around $63,000 in Singapore trading before rising slightly again. It once again shows its record-breaking volatility. Coinglass estimates that there were 1 billion positions between long and short daily, a record since the pandemic that shows how hot the topic is for speculation.
Mixed bags in the middle of the day
European stock markets were mixed midway through the session, with the Ftse Mib still up 0.6% and still above the 33,000 point threshold. Madrid is the best place on the Old Continent with an increase of 1.14%; London also performed well (+0.3%). Paris (-0.01%) and Frankfurt (-0.08%) are just below parity.
OECD, inflation falls to 5.7%
Inflation in the OECD area fell from 6% in December 2023 to 5.7% in January 2024: this is announced by the OECD itself, stating that inflation in two thirds of the countries that are members of the international body based in Paris , has sunk. The largest declines (of one percentage point or more) are reported in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and Iceland. In the G7 countries, inflation fell to 2.9% in January, after 3.2% in December, the lowest level since April 2021. Inflation, the OECD continued, fell in all G7 countries with the exception of Italy, which increased slightly (0.8% in January). compared to 0.6% in December). However, the Italian figure remains the lowest of the entire G7.
Egypt listens to IMF and raises interest rates to 27.25%
Egypt’s central bank raised interest rates in an unscheduled meeting and said it would let the market determine the exchange rate to ease a severe shortage of hard currency and raise new loans. The International Monetary Fund has awarded several billion US dollars. The increase in the reference interest rate corresponds to 600 basis points and brought it to 27.25%, writes Bloomberg, citing a statement in which the central bank says that the unification of the country’s exchange rates is “crucial.” Following the announcement, the official value of the Egyptian pound fell 1.5% to 31.35 against the dollar, a record low. The exchange rate at banks was 30.9 for months, but on the black market it was significantly weaker and was traded between 40 and 45 dollars. The International Monetary Fund has encouraged Egypt to tighten monetary policy to counter inflation nearing 30% and adopt a more flexible official exchange rate.
Germany, Ifo lowers growth forecast for 2024 to 0.2%
The Ifo lowered its growth forecast for Germany for the current year to 0.2%, after 0.7% in January and 0.9% in December. However, the Ifo increased its growth estimate for the coming year by 0.2 percentage points to 1.5 percent. “Consumer restraint, high interest rates and rising prices, government austerity measures and the global economic weakness are currently dampening the German economy and leading to another winter recession. The manufacturing economy will accelerate towards the middle of the year as interest rates and prices gradually disappear and consumers’ purchasing power increases,” says Timo Wollmershauser, head of forecasts at Ifo.
Germany had a surplus of 27.5 billion in January
Germany’s trade surplus rose to 27.5 billion euros in January, beating market forecasts of 21.5 billion euros and up from the upwardly revised 23.3 billion euros the previous month. It was the largest trade surplus ever recorded as exports grew faster than imports. Exports rose 6.3% to an 11-month high of 135.6 billion euros, beating expectations for a 1.5% increase. Imports rose 3.6% to reach a three-month high of 131.0 billion euros, beating market forecasts of 1.8% growth.
The spread starts again just below 140 points
The spread between BTPs and 10-year German Bunds starts back at 138 basis points, with a yield of 3.7% at its lowest level since January 2022. The difference “is at its lowest level in two years: “The data can be interpreted as a signal of renewed market confidence in risky assets in general and not specifically in relation to Italian risks,” he comments Michele Morra, Portfolio Manager Moneyfarm – The reduction in spreads has actually affected other types of bonds to a similar extent, such as corporate bonds, whose spreads are close to, if not lower than, historical averages. Although this decline represents a positive factor, it should be borne in mind that some indicators, such as the debt ratio, currently remain at their highest levels ever. In any case, it is interesting to see how the spread decline occurs against the backdrop of restrictive monetary policy and timid economic growth.”
Hong Kong is recovering
The Hong Kong stock market recovered after heavy losses (-2.61%), fueled by the release of China’s GDP targets of “around 5%” for 2024, as well as the other key indicators announced by Prime Minister Li Qiang, the Hang Seng Index rises by 1.70% to 16,438.09 points.
A weak start for the EU, says Milan
Weak and subdued start for European stock markets as investors await Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress for clues on the direction of US monetary policy. The UK’s 2024 budget statement is also scheduled today, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt explaining the government’s tax and spending plans to the British Parliament. At the macroeconomic level, Eurozone retail sales data arrived, while German data showed exports from Germany rose 6.3% in January, recovering from a 4.5% decline in December and meeting forecasts of a 1% increase .5% exceeded; Imports rose 3.6% after falling 6.7% in December and the trade surplus hit a record 27.5 billion euros. In early trading in London, the Ftse 100 index lost 0.06% to 7,641.19 points, in Frankfurt the Dax gained 0.02% to 17,697.75 points and in Paris the Cac40 lost 0.09% to 7,926, 02 points. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index rose 0.09% to 33,176.86
Points.
Tokyo closes marginally lower
The Tokyo stock market closed at almost flat levels, supporting weakness in U.S. stock markets and taking a breather from the rally in recent weeks that took the Nikkei index to its highest level in 34 years. At the end of the session, the benchmark index reached 40,090.78 points, down 0.02% compared to the previous session. The Topix index, however, closed slightly higher and ended trading with a gain of 0.39% to 2,730.67 points.
Oil on the rise in Asia
Oil prices are rising in Asian markets. WTI crude oil futures are trading above $78 a barrel after losing more than 2% in the last two sessions as the prospect of weaker demand outweighed OPEC+ supply cuts. The latest data on U.S. factory orders and services highlighted signs of a slowdown in economic activity in the United States and raised concerns about weaker energy demand from the world’s largest oil consumer. Analysts also noted a lack of strong signs of economic stimulus from China, the largest importer of crude oil, after the country set a growth target of “around 5%” for this year. Meanwhile, major oil producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have extended their voluntary oil production cuts into the second quarter. The ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East also continued to support oil prices.
Brent futures rise above $82 a barrel.
Acea, record investments in the plan. In 2023 profit of 280 million
Acea has approved the 2024-2028 industrial plan, which envisages investments of 7.6 billion “the highest level ever to support the country’s infrastructure development”, an Ebitda growth of over 5% per year on a like-for-like basis, a structure, a solid financial position, annual dividend growth of 23-28 with a total payout of over 1 billion. “The plan that we have called “Green Diligent Growth” – comments CEO Fabrizio Palermo – envisages significant growth and a focus on three regulated companies to make our infrastructures increasingly sustainable and resilient, with 7.6 billion euros of investments support the development of the country.” Meanwhile The company closes the 2023 annual accounts with a Group recurring net profit of 280 million euros, an increase of 22% compared to 2022, and an increase in Ebitda to 1,391 million (+7% ). affected by the sharp drop in prices on the energy markets. Revenues in the Water Italy, Networks & Smart Cities and Environment sectors amount to 2.4 billion euros, representing over 50% of the total and recording an increase of about 6% in the year Acea announced this the day after the approval of the 2023 budget announced by the board.
