MILAN – The assessment of the distance to the first cut in the cost of money by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remains the bellwether in this phase of financial markets.

Colombe ECB, focus on wages

After last Thursday’s ECB meeting, at which price estimates were cut, some European governors have clearly put the possible reduction in interest rates by the summer on the agenda. The words of the Frenchman de Galhau, who was historically on the side of the pigeons, were certainly not surprising, but rather the openness expressed by the “brightened prospects“ can also be found in the rhetoric of the German hawk Nagel.

The investment houses’ comments confirm the expectation of a move in June. He noted, for example Frederik Ducrozet, from Pictet, that “discussions about ‘reducing the hawkish stance’ have begun in the Frankfurt board and President Lagarde’s comments confirm our original hypothesis that the ECB will cut interest rates in June.” The final obstacle to overcome concerns wages: if the spring wage growth data dispels any doubts about the price spiral, action can be taken. A foretaste of this will come from the UK, where wage growth is still rated as strong in the survey due out on March 12 and a wait-and-see attitude is therefore prevailing Bank of England.

US inflation fell only slightly

During market week however Attention is again focused primarily on the USA. On Tuesday the most important data of the eighth will be up: inflation. Important foretaste of the Fed meeting on March 19th and 20th.

The expectation of Bloomberg It is only a partial weakening of price dynamics, accompanied by a recovery in retail sales (forecast at +0.8% compared to -0.8% previously): these would be signs that support the Fed’s reluctance to intervene. The forecast is for headline U.S. inflation to remain unchanged at 3.1%, while “core” consumer prices, excluding energy and food, are expected to fall to 3.7% from 3.9%. The monthly change in the main index is expected to decline from 0.4 to 0.3%. On interest rates, analysts now expect three rate cuts this year, totaling 100 basis points, starting the meeting on June 11 and 12.

Bitcoin superstar

Among other relevant market factors, where so far There was a tailwind that led to an incredible seventeen consecutive week growth streak for the Azonariuma signal is expected from Central Bank of China to support the financial system by lowering some reference interest rates. It remains a special observation Bitcoin, which has hit a record $70,000 in recent days, a psychological threshold that capped a 70 percent rally over the past seven weeks. And there are already those who are betting on new highs: the finance agency reports that in the options market the number of contracts aimed at achieving a target is between 80 and the $100,000 It rose 12% within 24 hours of setting the record.

Record-breaking Bitcoin leads to more mining: There’s a race for supercomputers. And energy consumption is increasing

by Raffaele Ricciardi

Finally, domestically, the focus is on reopening the stock market Tim, struck on Thursday when the plan was presented, raising doubts among analysts and unions. After the 23% drop on Thursday and the tentative recovery on Friday, number one Labriola met with the board on Sunday to take stock of the situation.

Here are the most important events of the week on the agenda act.

MONDAY, MARCH 11

– Microelectronics: In Rome at Mimit, the Minister of Economy and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, together with the top management of Microelettronica, presents an important new investment of the company in Italy.

– CDM: Council of Ministers at Palazzo Chigi – Japan: GDP of the fourth quarter

– EU: Eurogroup meeting

– Company: “Italy creates the future” event. 1000 companies: Italian excellence is rewarded”, with Luigi Ferraris, CEO of Fs, Luciano Fontana, director of Corriere Sera, Giampiero Maioli, CEO of Crèdit Agricole Italia, Urbano Cairo, president and CEO of Rcs Mediagroup.

TUESDAY, MARCH 12TH

– Germany: Final inflation value in February. – UK: Unemployment rate in January

– USA: Inflation in February

– Oil: OPEC monthly report

– Istat: exports of the Italian regions; Note on the development of the Italian economy.

– Unindustria: General Assembly in Rome. Participants include the Minister of Economy and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, and the President of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi.

– Federmeccanica: Presentation of the 169th Economic Report in Rome. Participants Federico Visentin, President of Federmeccanica; Diego Andreis, Vice President of Federmeccanica; Stefano Franchi, General Director of Federmeccanica.

– Companies: In Rome, the Ministry of Economy and Made in Italy called a meeting to examine the situation of Qf, formerly Gkn. Among the participants are the Minister Adolfo Urso, the Undersecretary of State Fausta Bergamotto, the President of the Tuscan Region Eugenio Giani, the Mayor of the Metropolitan City of Florence Dario Nardella and the Mayor of Campi Bisenzio Andrea Tagliaferri.

– AI: Conference “Artificial Intelligence for Italy” in Rome.

Speakers include Alessio Butti, Undersecretary of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers for Technological Innovation and Digital Transition; Matteo del Fante, CEO of the Italian Post Office; Pierroberto Folgiero, CEO of Fincantieri; Dario Scannapieco, CEO of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti; Cristiano Cannarsa, in Sogei; Luigi Ferraris, CEO of the Italian State Railway Group; Fabrizio Palermo, at Acea.

– G7: Presentation of the report “Impresa Italia to the G7” in Rome. Present were the Minister of Economy and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, Prof. Marco Fortis, economist and Vice President of the Edison Foundation, and Dr. Emma Marcegaglia, B7 Chairwoman Confindustria.

– Transport: The third edition of LetExpo begins in Verona.

Participants include Matteo Salvini, Vice President of the Council and Minister of Infrastructure and Transport; Guido Crosetto, Minister of Defense; Adolfo Urso, Minister of Economy and Made in Italy; Galeazzo Bignami, Deputy Minister of Infrastructure and Transport; Edoardo Rixi, Deputy Minister of Infrastructure and Transport; Vannia Gava, Deputy Minister of Environment and Energy Security. (Veronafiere, until March 15th)

– University: in Teramo: the Minister of Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, at the inauguration of the academic year and the course of the university campus “Aurelio Saliceti”.

– Leonardo: Presentation of the A2A industrial plan: Presentation of the strategic plan 2024-2035, with Renato Mazzoncini, CEO of A2A Generali: Budget result.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13TH

– UK: GDP and industrial production in January – Eurozone: industrial production in January – USA: weekly oil stocks

– Istat: the labor market (IV quarter of 2023).

– Transport: Forum for Sustainable Intermodality in Rome.

Among those present is the Minister for the Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin.

– Energy: New edition of Biogas Italy in Rome, the annual event of the CIB-Italian Biogas Consortium. Participants include Piero Gattoni, Cib President; the Minister of Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin; Massimiliano Giansanti, President of Confagricoltura.

– G/: in Verona B7 Italy, organized by Confindustria and expression of the private sector and industrial associations of the G7 countries. With the Minister of Economy and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso.

– Taxes: Meeting on the topic “Tax reform, implementation and perspectives” with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti and Deputy Minister Maurizio Leo.

– ECB: Piero Cipollone speaks at the conference organized by the “Digital Innovation Observatories” at the Polytechnic.

– Luiss: Presentation of the book “Equality through the Constitution: History of an unfinished utopia from 1948 to today” by the Director of the Agency for Revenue, Ernesto Maria Ruffini.

– Chamber: Transport Committee – Informal hearing of the CEO of Poste Italiane Spa, Matteo Del Fante, as part of the examination of the draft decree of the President of the Council of Ministers on the sale of a share of the economic and financial holding held by the Ministry in the capital Poste Italiane Spa.

– Eni: financial report and dividend 2023.

THURSDAY, MARCH 14TH

– Spain: Inflation in February

– USA: producer prices and retail sales in February – USA: weekly unemployment benefits – G7: meeting in Verona on Industry, Technology and Digital chaired by the Minister of Economy and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso.

– Pnrr: As part of the legal examination of the Decree-Law, which contains other urgent provisions for the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, the Budget Commission of the Chamber is holding, in the Sala del Mappamondo, the hearing of the Minister of European Affairs, the South, Cohesion Policy and Pnrr, Raffaele Fitto.

– Eni: Presentation of the strategic plan 2024-2027.

– Iveco: Capital Markets Day.

– Snam: balance sheet results and conference call.

FRIDAY, MARCH 15TH

– France: final inflation value in February – USA: consumer sentiment in Michigan in March – Istat: consumer prices in February; Retail January; Foreign trade and import prices January.

– G7: Second day of the G7 on Industry, Technology and Digital in Trento. It will be chaired by the Undersecretary of State for the Council Presidency in charge of technological innovation, Alessio Butti.

– LetExpo: The third edition ends in Verona. Among those taking part is the Minister for the Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin.

– Energy: Cerium conference (Renewable Energy Communities) in Vidracco (Turin). With the Minister of Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin.

– Confindustria: screening of the documentary “Atlantico”, the documentary about the journey of the 12 panels of Leonardo da Vinci’s Codex Atlanticus to Washington. With the President of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi.

– Webuild: presentation of financial results.